Monday, November 01, 2004
POLITICS AS USUAL: MY ELECTION PREDICTION
I think they're wrong.
I know, we've been obsessed with polls that place the race for the White House neck-and-neck, with each man taking the lead at one time or another. But I suspect these polls might be asking the wrong questions.
Consider, if you will, the latest poll done by the New York Times and CBS. Amongst other more obvious findings, this poll creates some interesting data:
John Kerry has a 41% favorable, 47% unfavorable rating. This is his worst rating ever.
President Bush has a 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable rating. That is his best rating since last December.
Undecided voters lean to President Bush 50%-47%, validating the Pew finding and calling the Gallup number into question.
66% of Bush voters strongly favor their candidate.
50% of Kerry voters strongly favor their candidate.
By a 49%-34% margin, voters expect President Bush to win.
President Bush has a 49%-44% job approval rating.
The right track today is 43%. In 1996, it was only 39%.
48% of voters will vote on national security issues; only 33% on domestic issues.
By a 54%-29%, voters believe the Bush Administration has made them safer.
53% of Americans say we did the right think in Iraq. Only 42% disagree.
If these stats are accurate, Bush will win. I believe that's true, despite what the "polling trends" are saying. Here's why I think Bush will win:
- The entire election has been centred on Iraq and terror--a Bush strength;
- The Osama tape will push people towards someone strong on that issue;
- The Bush campaign has spent YEARS cultivating the 4 million evangelicals who didn't vote for Bush last time--it will pay off.
- This all comes down to who will vote--the Bush campaign has an all-volunteer effort, while the Kerry camp has farmed it out to a company. Nothing can replace the effort you get for creating a grassroots "friends and neighbours" vote drive.
- For all the talk about the "cell phone underrepresentation" in all these polls, I suspect Bush's vote is underrepresented. People are embarrassed to say they're voting for Bush. They're worried their neighbours will look down on them. I've campaigned for controversial politicians. I know that happens.
I won't be so brave to put numbers on the Electoral College, but I do think Bush will win. And frankly, to see all the media and hollywood elites have to eat that? Hell, I'm pulling out my VCR so I can tape their reactions and watch it over and over and over......
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