Friday, November 04, 2005
POLITICS AS USUAL: I"M STILL (MOSTLY) RIGHT
8% jump in Ontario. Not exactly flat.
But before you place all those candles around the velvet photo of the good judge you have in your Gomery shrine, I'd like to make a few points:
- We're down 9 points in Atlantic Canada, and 3 points in BC;
- In every province but Ontario, the OTHER parties (mostly the NDP, but the BQ in Quebec) all have a larger jump than we do;
- There has been NO change in overall Party support since the June 2004 election (we've basically just clawed our way back from the 26% low);
- 74% said there were "no surprises in Gomery"; and
- 60% feel that Gomery will not change how the government operates.
So, what does this poll tell me? Here's my take:
- Cynicism is completely blunting the impact of Gomery.
- Our focus on Gomery has had no real impact on CPC support.
- Something is going on in Ontario--I think the jump has less to do with Gomery, more to do with McGuinty, Tory, et al jumping all over the feds for Kashechewan, etc and for Ontarians getting tired of McGuinty (Ontario PCs are tied with Libs, with John Tory voted best Premier).
- Canadians get the fact that Libs are tired and need to go. You need to answer the second half of the question: what will they be replaced with? Changes to fix Gomery will take 6 months. What will you do for the rest of the four year term?
Anyway, I stand by my earlier assertion--get off Gomery. The impact (if any) has already hit the Libs.
Let's move on to talk about how we would govern differently and all the non-Gomery shortcomings of this tired, old regime.
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